The Nigerian federal government has initiated a high-level discourse aimed at fundamental restructuring of the nation’s fiscal framework, with Vice President Kashim Shettima and the immediate past Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, Ben Akabueze, leading the call for a more disciplined, realistic, and development-oriented budgeting system. Speaking at a two-day National Policy Dialogue in Abuja on Tuesday, both leaders warned that the persistent disconnect between national economic planning and annual budgetary allocations has stifled growth and resulted in a staggering number of uncompleted infrastructure projects across the federation.

The event, organized by the National Assembly Joint Committee on National Planning and Economic Affairs/Development, was themed “The Imperatives of National Development Plan for Effective Budgeting System and Sustainable Growth of the Nigerian Economy.” It served as a platform for stakeholders to evaluate the effectiveness of the Renewed Hope Agenda under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and to propose legislative and executive guardrails to ensure that public spending translates into tangible improvements in the standard of living for the average Nigerian.

Representing the Vice President, the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Tope Fasua, emphasized that the dialogue arrived at a pivotal juncture in Nigeria’s economic history. He noted that the Tinubu administration is currently navigating a complex landscape of reforms intended to stabilize the macroeconomy while simultaneously fostering an environment conducive to industrial productivity. According to the Vice President, the traditional approach to budgeting must evolve to focus not merely on annual expenditure but on long-term developmental outcomes and the elevation of the nation’s human capital indices.

Ambitious Fiscal Planning and the N68 Trillion Target

A central theme of Vice President Shettima’s address was the rejection of the "lean budget" philosophy. While some economic critics have called for a reduction in the size of the national budget to manage debt and deficits, Shettima argued that Nigeria’s developmental needs are too vast for a conservative fiscal approach. He revealed that the administration has made a strategic adjustment to the 2026 fiscal budget, increasing the projected sum by approximately N10 trillion to reach a total of N68 trillion.

This ambitious figure, Shettima explained, is intended to reflect the scale of the challenges facing the country and the administration’s commitment to large-scale intervention. "Our budgets should not only be people-focused; they should actually be larger than they are presently," he stated. This shift suggests a move toward a more expansionary fiscal policy, provided the revenue generation mechanisms can keep pace with the proposed spending.

The Vice President further elaborated that the government’s focus is shifting toward data-driven planning rather than the rigid, top-down structures associated with historical command economies. He noted that the current administration is utilizing the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the National Development Plan 2021–2025 to guide its decisions. The ultimate goal, he noted, is to see significant leaps in the 17 metrics measured under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in the areas of food security, education, healthcare, and clean water access.

Addressing the Crisis of 56,000 Abandoned Projects

In a sobering presentation, Ben Akabueze, the former Director-General of the Budget Office, provided a data-backed critique of the current system’s failures. His presentation, titled “Linking budgeting to planning and bridging the implementation gap in Nigeria: Strategies for enhanced fiscal discipline, development outcomes, and accountability,” highlighted a catastrophic waste of national resources. Akabueze revealed that there are currently an estimated 56,000 abandoned projects scattered across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

This "graveyard of projects" is, according to Akabueze, the direct result of a systemic failure to link annual budgets to long-term development plans. He argued that the budget is often viewed as a standalone document of expenditure rather than a one-year "snapshot" of a broader five-year or ten-year development map. When political considerations or sudden revenue shortfalls occur, projects are often started without the guarantee of multi-year funding, leading to their eventual abandonment.

“A budget should be the compass that directs resources toward development priorities,” Akabueze remarked. He urged the National Assembly and the Executive to transition from "budgeting for expenditure" to "budgeting for development outcomes." He pointed out that the current Renewable Medium-Term Plan (2026–2030) provides an opportunity to correct these historical errors, but only if there is a legal and institutional commitment to project continuity.

Policy Interventions and Tariff Adjustments

To complement the fiscal reforms, Vice President Shettima highlighted several recent policy steps taken by the Tinubu administration to stimulate the real sector of the economy. In an effort to ease the cost of doing business and reduce the inflationary pressure on essential goods, the government has implemented significant tariff adjustments.

According to the Vice President, tariffs on essential raw materials have been reduced to encourage local manufacturing. Most notably, duties on pharmaceutical products, fabrics, machinery, and specific manufacturing equipment have been removed or significantly lowered. These "deft moves," as described by Shettima, are intended to boost productivity in critical sectors and provide relief to citizens who have been grappling with the rising cost of living following the removal of the fuel subsidy and the unification of the exchange rate.

These interventions signal a move toward a more "nuanced" economic strategy that balances the need for fiscal discipline with the necessity of supporting domestic industry. By reducing the cost of inputs, the government hopes to spark a resurgence in the manufacturing sector, which has historically been hampered by high operational costs and inadequate infrastructure.

Historical Context: The Evolution of Planning in Nigeria

The current push for reform is set against a backdrop of decades of inconsistent economic planning. Since the return to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria has launched several high-profile development frameworks, including:

1. Vision 20:2020: Launched in the mid-2000s with the goal of making Nigeria one of the world’s top 20 economies by the year 2020. While it provided a comprehensive roadmap, implementation was hampered by political transitions and fluctuating oil prices.
2. The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017–2020: Developed in response to the 2016 recession, the ERGP focused on macroeconomic stability and agricultural transformation.
3. National Development Plan (NDP) 2021–2025: The successor to the ERGP, which aims to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025.

Despite these frameworks, the actual execution through the annual budget process has remained problematic. Experts at the dialogue noted that the National Assembly often makes significant "insertions" or "paddings" to the budget, which sometimes divert funds from the strategic priorities outlined in the National Development Plans toward localized, small-scale projects that do not contribute to national economic growth.

The Need for an Organic Budget Law

A recurring point of discussion during the policy dialogue was the structural weakness of Nigeria’s fiscal laws. While the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2007 provides a basic framework for deficit limits and revenue management, it is widely considered insufficient for the complexities of a modern economy.

Legislators and economic experts alike called for the enactment of a comprehensive "Organic Budget Law." Such a law would:

• Establish Clear Timelines: Strictly defining the dates for budget submission, passage, and presidential assent to avoid the delays that have historically plagued the fiscal year.
• Define Institutional Roles: Clarifying the boundaries between the executive’s planning functions and the legislature’s oversight and appropriation powers.
• Enforcement Mechanisms: Introducing sanctions for MDAs (Ministries, Departments, and Agencies) that fail to adhere to the National Development Plan or fail to implement projects for which funds were released.
• Project Continuity: Ensuring that once a major infrastructure project is commenced, it receives priority funding in subsequent budgets regardless of changes in political leadership.

Economic Implications and the Path Forward

The implications of the proposed reforms are significant. If the government successfully links the N68 trillion budget for 2026 to the National Development Plan, it could mark the end of the "incremental budgeting" era, where agencies simply add a percentage to the previous year’s figures without evaluating the impact of the spending.

The emphasis on per capita income and the reduction of poverty rates as the primary measures of success—rather than just GDP growth—reflects a shift toward inclusive growth. With Nigeria’s population projected to continue its rapid expansion, the pressure on infrastructure, education, and healthcare is immense.

However, challenges remain. The transition to an outcome-based budgeting system requires a high level of transparency and a robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework. Furthermore, the reliance on oil revenue and the volatility of the Naira pose ongoing risks to the realization of these ambitious fiscal targets.

The two-day National Policy Dialogue concluded with a consensus that the "business as usual" approach to Nigerian budgeting is no longer sustainable. As the country moves toward the 2026 fiscal cycle, the focus will be on whether the legislative and executive arms of government can maintain the synergy required to turn these policy recommendations into a functional reality that benefits the nation’s over 200 million citizens.